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Brian A. Colle  

Brian A. Colle

Ph.D., 1997, University of Washington


Synoptic meteorology, mesoscale numerical modeling and forecasting, coastal meteorology

Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction Group

Research Interests

The COastal Meteorological And Prediction (COMAP) group focuses on improving the understanding and forecasting of meteorological phenomena in the coastal margins of North America. Many near-shore features, such as severe convective storms, storm surge, land/sea breeze circulations, orographic flows and precipitation, and marine clouds/fog in a marine environment are challenging to forecast.

These phenomena are investigated using conventional data, field study observations, as well as atmospheric (Weather Research and Forecasting model, Bryan Cloud Model, and MM5) and ocean (ADCIRC and SWAN) models combined with the latest data assimilation approaches. We also also interested in how extreme weather will change in a future climate using WRF nested within global climate models. For more information, please visit the COMAP web page.


Stark, D., S.E. Yuter, and B.A. Colle, 2013: Observed microphysical evolution for two East coast winter storms and the associated snow bands. In press to Mon. Wea. Rev.

Renfro, A., K. Cochran, and B. Colle, 2013: Atmospheric fluxes of 7Be and 210Pb on monthly time-scales and during rainfall events at Stony Brook, New York (USA). J. Environ. Radioact.. , 116, 114-123.

Lin, Y., B. A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2013: Impact of moisture flux and freezing level on simulated orographic precipitation errors over the Pacific Northwest. In press to J. of Hydrometeor.

Pollina, J., B. A. Colle, and J. Charney, 2013: Climatology and meteorological evolution of major wildfire events over the Northeast U.S. In press to Wea. Forecasting.

Colle, B. A. , K. A. Lombardo, J. Tongue, W. Goodman, and N. Vaz, 2012: Tornadoes in the New York Metropolitan Region: Climatology and multiscale analysis of two events. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1326-1348.

Lombardo, K, and B. A. Colle, 2012: Ambient conditions associated with the maintenance and decay of quasi-linear convective systems crossing the northeastern U.S. coast. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 140, 3805-3819.

Erickson, M.E., B. A. Colle, and J. Charney, 2012: Impact of bias correction type and conditional training on Bayesian model averaging over the northeast United States. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1449-1469.

Molthan, A., and B.A. Colle, 2012: Comparison of single and double moment microphysics schemes in the simulation of a synoptic-scale snowfall event. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 140, 2982-3002.

Novak, D. and B. A. Colle, 2012: Diagnosing snowband predictability using a multi-model ensemble system.. Sin Wea. Forecasting, 27, 565-585.

DiLiberto, T., B. A. Colle, N. Georgas, A. Blumberg, and A. Taylor, 2011: Verification of a multiple model storm surge ensemble for the New York Metropolitan Region., Wea. Forecasting.26, 922-939.

Lombardo K., and B. A. Colle, 2011: Convective storm structures and ambient conditions associated with severe weather over the Northeast U.S. Wea. Forecasting. , 26, 940-956.

Colle, B. A. , and M. E. Charles, 2011: Spatial distribution and evolution of extratropical cyclone errors over North America and adjacent oceans in the NCEP Global Forecast System model. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 129-149.

Yuter, S. E., J. Payne, D. Stark, B. A. Colle, and J. Crouch, 2011: Observational sensitivity study of the temporal and spatial patterns of orographic precipitation for winter storms near Portland, Oregon. J. Hydrometeor, 12, 329-351.

Lin, Y., L. Donner, and B. A. Colle, 2011: Parameterization of riming degree and its impact on ice fall speed using ARM data, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 139, 1013–1035.

Lin, Y., and B. A., Colle, 2011: A new bulk microphysical scheme that includes varying degree of riming and particle habits., Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1036-1047.

Murray, J., and B. Colle, 2011: A climatology of convective storms over the Northeast United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 992-1012.

Lombardo, K., and B. A. Colle, 2010: A climatology of convective structures over the Northeast U.S. and the associated ambient conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev, 138, 4456–4474.

Colle, B. A. , and D. Novak, 2010: New York Bight jet: Climatology and dynamical evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev.,138, 2385-2404

Novak, D., and B. A. Colle, 2010: Climatology and composite analysis of mesoscale precipitation band formation in the comma head of mid-latitude cyclones., Mon. Wea. Rev. 138, 2354-2374.

Willett, K., F. Pimenta, D. Veron, and B. Colle, 2010: Electric power from offshore wind via synoptic-scale interconnection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,doi:10.1073/pnas.0909075107.

Colle, B. A. , K. Rojowsky, and F. Buonaiuto, 2010: New York City storm surges: Climatology and analysis of the wind and cyclone evolution. J. Appl. Meteor. and Climatology, 49, 85-100.

Charles, M., and B. A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 1: Comparison of the GFS and NAM models., Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1173-1190.

Charles, M., and B. A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 2: Evaluation of the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system, Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1191-1214

Novak, D., B. A. Colle, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2009: The role of moist processes in the formation and evolution of mesoscale snowbands within the comma-head of Northeast U.S. cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2662-2686.

Lin, Y., and B. A. Colle, 2009: Observed and Simulated Cloud Microphysics over the Oregon Cascades during the 4-5 December IMPROVE-2 IOP, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1372-1392.

Olson, J. B., and B. A. Colle, 2009: Three-dimensional Idealized Simulations of Barrier Jets Along the Southeastern Coast of Alaska. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 391-413.

Colle, B.A., Buonaiuto, F., Bowman, M.J., Wilson, R.E., Flood, R., Hunter, R., Mintz, A., Hill, D., 2008. New York City’s vulnerability to coastal flooding. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 89, 829–841.

Novak, D. and B. A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2008: High resolution observations and model simulations of the life cycle of an intense mesoscale snowband., Mon. Wea. Rev.,136, 1433–1456.

Colle, B A., 2008: Two-dimensional idealized simulations of the impact of multiple windward ridges on orographic precipitation, J. Atmos. Sci. 65, 509–523.

Colle B. A., Lin Y., Medina S., Smull B., 2008: Orographic modification of convection and flow kinematics by the Oregon coastal range and Cascades during IMPROVE-2. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3894-3916.

Colle, B. A., and S. E., Yuter, 2007: The Impact of Coastal Boundaries and Small Hills on the Precipitation Distribution Across Southern Connecticut and Long Island, NY. Mon. Wea. Rev, 135, 933-954.

Olson, J., B. Colle, N. Bond, and N. Winstead, 2007: A comparison of two barrier jet events along the southeast Alaskan coast during the SARJET experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev.,135, 3642–3663.

Olson, J. B., and B. A. Colle, 2007: A Modified approach to initialize an idealized extra-tropical cyclone within a mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1614-1624.

Jones, M., B. A. Colle, and J. Tongue, 2007: Evaluation of a short-range ensemble forecast system over the Northeast U.S., Wea. Forecasting, 22, 36-55.

Winstead, N. S., B. A. Colle, N. Bond, G. Young, J. Olson, K. Loescher, F. Monaldo, D. Thompson, and W. Pichel, 2006:  Barrier Jets: Combining SAR Remote Sensing, Field Observations and Models to Better Understand Coastal Flows in the Gulf of Alaska. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 787-800.

Novak, D. and B. A. Colle, 2006: Observations of Multiple Sea Breeze Boundaries during an Unseasonably Warm Day in Metropolitan New York City,  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87,169-174.

Loescher, K. A., G. S. Young, B. A. Colle, and N. S. Windstead, 2006: Climatology of barrier jets along the Alaskan coast, Part 1: Spatial and temporal distributions. Mon. Wea. Rev, 134, 437-453.

Colle, B. A., K. A. Loescher, G. S. Young, N. S. Winstead, 2006: Climatology of barrier jets along the Alaskan coast, Part 2: Large-scale and sounding composites. Mon. Wea. Rev.,134, 454-477

Colle, B. A., J. B., Wolfe, W. J. Steenburgh, D. E. Kingsmill, J. A. Cox, and J. C. Shafer, 2005: High resolution simulations and microphysical validation of an orographic precipitation event over the Wasatch Mountains during IPEX IOP3. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 2947-2971.

Garvert, M., B. A. Colle, and C. F. Mass, 2005: The 13-14 December IMPROVE event: Part I, Synoptic and mesoscale comparison of the observed structures with a mesoscale model simulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3474-3492.

Garvert, M., C. Woods, B. A. Colle, M. Stoelinga, P. V. Hobbs, and C. F. Mass, 2005: The 13-14 December IMPROVE event: Part II, Evaluation of the cloud and precipitation structures in the MM5, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3520-3534.

Colle, B. A., M. Garvert, J. Wolfe, and C. F. Mass, 2005: The 13-14 December IMPROVE event: Part III, Microphysical budgets and sensitivities for the 13-14 December IMPROVE event. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3535-3558.

Cox, J.A., W.J. Steenburgh, D.E. Kingsmill, Jason and B.A. Colle, 2005: Kinematic structure of a Wasatch mountain winter storm  during IPEX IOP3, Mon. Wea. Rev.,133,  521-544.

Colle, B. A., and Y. Zeng, 2004: Bulk microphysical sensitivities within the MM5 for orographic precipitation: Part I, the Sierra 1986 event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2780-2801.

Colle, B. A. and Y. Zeng, 2004: Bulk microphysical sensitivities within the MM5 for orographic precipitation:  Part II, Impact of  barrier width and freezing level. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2802-2815.

Roebber, P.J., D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud, 2004: Towards improved  prediction: High resolution and ensemble modeling in operations., Wea. Forecasting, 19, 936-949.         

Colle, B. A., 2004: Sensitivity of orographic precipitation to changing ambient conditions and terrain geometries: An idealized modeling perspective. J. Atmos. Sci.,61, 588-606.

Colle, B. A., 2003: Numerical simulations of the extratropical transition of Floyd (1999): Structural evolution and  responsible mechanisms for the heavy rainfall over the Northeast U.S. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2905-2926.

Stoelinga, M., P.V. Hobbs, C.F. Mass, J.D. Locatelli, B. A. Colle, and co-authors, 2003: Improvement of microphysical parameterizations through observational  verification experiments (IMPROVE). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,  84, 1807-1826.

Colle, B.A., J. B. Olson, and J. S. Tongue, 2003: Multi-season verification of the MM5: Part I, Comparison with the Eta over the Central and Eastern U.S. and impact of MM5 resolution. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 431-457.

Colle, B.A., J. B. Olson, and J. S. Tongue, 2003: Multi-season verification of the MM5: Part II, Evaluation of high resolution precipitation forecasts over the Northeast U.S. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 458-480.

Colle, B.A., 2002: Cold air damming. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, San Diego, CA, 504-509.

Colle, B.A., B.F. Smull, and M-J. Yang, 2002: Numerical simulations of a landfalling cold front observed during COAST: Rapid evolution and responsible mechanisms. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 1945-1966.

Mass, C.F., D. Ovens, K. Westrick., and B. A. Colle, 2002: Does increasing resolution produce better forecasts? The results of two years of real-time numerical  weather prediction over the Pacific Northwest. Accepted to Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 407-430.

Colle, B.A., C.F. Mass, and David Ovens, 2001: Evaluation of the timing and strength of MM5 and Eta surface trough passages over the eastern Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 553-572.

Colle, B.A., C.F. Mass, and K.W. Westrick, 2000: MM5 precipitation verification over the Pacific Northwest during the1997-1999 cool seasons, Wea. Forecasting 15,730-744.

Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 2000: High resolution observations and numerical simulations of easterly gap flow through the Strait of Juan de Fuca on 9-10 December 1995. Mon. Wea. Rev. 128, 2398-2422.

Doyle, J. D., D. R. Durran, C. Chen, B. A. Colle, M. Georgelin, V. Grubisic, W. R. Hsu, C. Y. Huang, D. Landau, Y. L. Lin, G. S. Poulos, W. Y. Sun, D. B. Weber,  M. G. Wurtele, and M. Xue, 2000: An intercomparison of model predicted wave breaking for the 11 January 1972 Boulder windstorm. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128,  901-914.

Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 2000: The 5-9 February 1996 flooding event over the Pacific Northwest: sensitivity studies and evaluation of the MM5 precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev, 128, 593-617.

Westrick, K. J., C. F. Mass, and B. A. Colle, 1999: The limitations of the WSR-88D radar network for quantitative precipitation measurement over the coastal western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 80, 2289-2298.

Colle, B. A., C. F. Mass, and B. F. Smull, 1999: An observational and numerical study of  a cold front interacting with the Olympic Mountains during COAST IOP 5. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127,1310-1334.

Colle, B. A., K. J. Westrick, and C. F. Mass, 1999: Evaluation of MM5 and Eta-10  precipitation forecasts over the Pacific Northwest during the cool season. Wea. Forecasting. 14, 137-154.

Steenburgh, W. J., D. M. Schultz, and B. A. Colle, 1998: The structure and evolution of gap outflow over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mon. Wea. Rev. 126,  2673-2691.

Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 1998: Windstorms along the western side of the Washington Cascade Mountains, part I: an observational and modeling study of the 12 February 1995 event. Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 28-52.

Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 1998: Windstorms along the western side of the Washington Cascade Mountains, part II: characteristics of past events and three-dimensional idealized simulations. Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 53-71.

Bond, N. A., C. F. Mass, B. F. Smull, R. A. Houze, M.-J. Yang, B. A. Colle, S. A. Braun, M. A. Shapiro, B. R. Colman, P. J.Neiman, J. E. Overland, W. D. Neff, and J. D. Doyle, 1997: The coastal observation and simulation with topography (COAST) experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 78, 1941-1955.

Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 1996: An observational and modeling study of the interaction of low-level southwesterly flow with the Olympic Mountains during COAST IOP 4. Mon. Wea. Rev. 124, 2152-2175.

Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 1995: Structural evolution of northerly cold surges along the eastern side of the Rocky Mountains. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123,2577-2610.


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