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Brian A. Colle


Ph.D., 1997, University of Washington

Extreme weather, coastal meteorology, weather forecasting, regional climate change

Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction Group

Google Scholar Profile


Research Interests

The COastal Meteorological And Prediction (COMAP) group focuses on improving the understanding and forecasting of extreme weather in the coastal margins of North America. The group investigates severe convective storms, extratropical and tropical storms, low-level jets and sea breezes, precipitation bands and microphysics, orographic flows, and heavy precipitation using conventional data, field observations, and numerical models (e.g., Weather Research and Forecasting). The WRF is also nested within global climate models to understand how extreme weather may change during the next century. He also utilizes high-resolution atmosphere and ocean models for storm surge, fire weather, and offshore wind power resource assessments and forecasting.

For more information, please visit the COMAP web page.

Publications (since 2007)


Li, H., and B. A. Colle, 2016: Future changes in warm season convective storm days over the Northeastern United States using CMIP5 predictions. In press to J. Climate.

Erickson, M.J., J.J. Charney, and B.A. Colle, 2016: Development of a fire weather index using meteorological observations in the northeast U.S. In press to J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim.

Colle, B.A., M. Sienkiewicz, C. Archer, D. Veron, F. Veron, J. Mak, and W. Kempton, 2016: Meteorological observations for U.S. East Coast offshore wind power: Improving the Mapping and Prediction of Offshore Wind Resources (IMPOWR). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00253.1.

Bratton, S.D., B.A. Colle, and R.E. Wilson, 2015: Synoptic flow patterns and decadal variations of wind-induced mixing over western Long Island Sound. J. Geophys. Res.,120, DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023080.

Ganetis, S.A, B.A. Colle, 2015: The thermodynamic and microphysical evolution of an intense snowband during the Northeast U.S. blizzard of 8-9 February 2013. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4104-4125.

Colle, B.A., M. Bowman, K. Roberts, H. Bowman, C. Flagg, J. Kuang, Y. Wng, E. Munsell, and F. Zhang, 2015: Exploring water level sensitivity for Metropolitan New York during Sandy (2012) using ensemble storm surge simulations. J. Marine Science and Engineering, 3, 428-428.

Colle, B.A., J.E. Booth, and E. Chang, 2015: A review of historical and future changes of extratropical cyclones and associated impacts along the U.S. East Coast. Current Climate Change Reports, 1-19.DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0013-7.

Roberts, K.J., B.A. Colle, N. Georgas, and S.B. Munch, 2015: A regression-based approach for cool-season storm surge predictions along the New York/New York Coast. J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim., 54, 1773-1791.

Layer, M. and B. A. Colle, 2015: Climatology and ensemble prediction of non-convective high wind events in the New York City Metropolitan Region. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 270-294.

Lombardo, K., B.A. Colle, and Z. Zhang, 2015: Evaluation of historical and future precipitation over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic storm track using CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 28, 451-467.

Wilson, R.E., S. Bratton, Jindong Wang, and B.A. Colle, 2015: Evidence for directional wind response in controlling inter-annual variations in duration and areal extent of summertime hypoxia in western Long Island Sound. Estuaries and Coasts, 38, 1735-1743. DOI 10.1007/s12237-014-9914-2.


Picca, J.C., D.M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, S. Ganetis, D.R. Novak, and M. Sienkiewicz, 2014: The value of dual-polarization radar in diagnosing the complex microphysical evolution of an intense snowband. Bull. Meteor. Soc., 95, 1825-1834.

Li, H., and B.A. Colle, 2014: Multidecadal changes in the frequency and ambient conditions of warm season convective storms over the northeastern U.S. J. Climate, 27, 7285-7300.

Colle, B.A., D. Stark, and S.E. Yuter, 2014: Surface microphysical observations within East coast winter storms on Long Island. Mon. Wea. Rev, 142, 3126-3146.

Souders, M.B., B.A. Colle, E. K.-M., Chang, 2014: A description and evaluation of an automated approach for feature-based tracking of Rossby wave packets. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3505-3527.

Souders, M.B., B.A. Colle, E. K.-M., Chang, 2014: The climatology and characteristics of Rossby wave packets using a feature-based tracking technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3528-3548.

Archer, C. L., B.A. Colle, L. Delle Monache, M. J. Dvorak, J. Lundquist, B. H. Bailey, P. Beaucage, M. J. Churchfield, A. C. Fitch, B. Kosovic, S. Lee, P. J. Moriarty, H. Simao, R. J. A. M. Stevens, D. Veron, J. Zackhttp, 2014: Meteorology for coastal/offshore wind energy in the United States: Recommendations and research needs for the next 10 years. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 515-519.

Wuebbles, D, G. Meehl, K. Hayhoe, T. Karl, K. Kunkel, B. Santer, M. Wehner, B. Colle, E. Fischer, R. Fu, A. Goodman, E. Janssen, V. Kharin, H. Lee, W. Li, L. Long, S. Olsen, Z. Pan, A. Seth, J. Sheffield, and L. Sun, 2014: CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 95, 571-583.

Maloney, E. D., S. J. Camargo, E. Chang, B. Colle, R. Fu, K. L. Geil, Q. Hu, X. Jiang, N. Johnson, K. B. Karnauskas, J. Kinter, B. Kirtman, S. Kumar, B. Langenbrunner, K. Lombardo, L. N. Long, A. Mariotti, J. E. Meyerson, K. C. Mo, J. D. Neelin, Z. Pan, R. Seager, Y. Serra, A. Seth, J. Sheffield, J. Stroeve, J. Thibeault, S.-P. Xie, C. Wang, B. Wyman, and M. Zhao, 2014: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments: Part III: Assessment of 21st Century projections. J. Climate, 27, 2230-2270.

Hodrefe, C, P. Doraiswamy, B.A. Colle, K. Demerjian, W. Hao, M. Erickson, M. Souders, and J-Y Ku, 2014: Meteorology, Emissions, and Grid Resolution: Effects on Discrete and Probabilistic Model Performance. In: D. Steyn, P. Builtjes, R. Timmermans (eds.): Air Pollution and Modeling and Its Application XXII, NARA Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, 493-497. Springer Netherlands.


Sheffield, J., A. Barrett, B. Colle, R. Fu, K. L. Geil, Q. Hu, J. Kinter, S. Kumar, B. Langenbrunner, K. Lombardo, L. N. Long, E. Maloney, A. Mariotti, J. E.

Meyerson, K. C. Mo, J. D. Neelin, Z. Pan, A. Ruiz-Barradas, Y. L. Serra, A. Seth, J. M. Thibeault, J. C. Stroeve, 2013: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century continental and regional climatology. J. Climate, 26, 9247-9290.

He, J., M. Zhang, W. Lin, B. Colle, and A. Vogelmann, 2013: The WRF nested within the CESM: Simulations of a mid-latitude cyclone over the Southern Great Plains. J Adv. in Modeling Earth Systems. 5, 611-622.

Lombardo, K, and B.A. Colle, 2013: Processes controlling the structure and longevity of two quasi-linear convective systems crossing the southern New England coast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3710–3734.

Zheng, M., K. Chang, and B.A. Colle, 2013: Ensemble sensitivity tools for assessing extratropical cyclone intensity and track predictability. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 1133–1156.

Colle, B.A., Z. Zhang, K. Lombardo, P. Liu, E. Chang, and M. Zhang, 2013: Historical evaluation and future prediction in eastern North America and western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season. J. Climate, 26, 6882–6903.

Stark, D., S.E. Yuter, and B.A. Colle, 2013: Observed microphysical evolution for two East coast winter storms and the associated snow bands. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2037–2057.

Renfro, A., K. Cochran, and B. Colle, 2013: Atmospheric fluxes of 7Be and 210Pb on monthly time-scales and during rainfall events at Stony Brook, New York (USA). J. Environ. Radioact.., 116, 114-123.

Lin, Y., B.A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2013: Impact of moisture flux and freezing level on simulated orographic precipitation errors over the Pacific Northwest. J. of Hydrometeor. , 14, 140-152.

Pollina, J., B.A. Colle, and J. Charney, 2013: Climatology and meteorological evolution of major wildfire events over the Northeast U.S.Wea. Forecasting, 28, 175–193.

Colle, B. A. , K. A. Lombardo, J. Tongue, W. Goodman, and N. Vaz, 2012: Tornadoes in the New York Metropolitan Region: Climatology and multiscale analysis of two events. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1326-1348.


Lombardo, K, and B.A. Colle, 2012: Ambient conditions associated with the maintenance and decay of quasi-linear convective systems crossing the northeastern U.S. coast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 3805-3819.

Erickson, M.E., B.A. Colle, and J. Charney, 2012: Impact of bias correction type and conditional training on Bayesian model averaging over the northeast United States. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1449-1469.

Molthan, A., and B.A. Colle, 2012: Comparison of single and double moment microphysics schemes in the simulation of a synoptic-scale snowfall event. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 140, 2982-3002.

Novak, D. and B.A. Colle, 2012: Diagnosing snowband predictability using a multi-model ensemble system.. Sin Wea. Forecasting, 27, 565-585.

Colle, B.A., R.B. Smith, and D. Wesley, 2012: Theory, Observations, and Predictions of Orographic Precipitation. In: Chow, F.K., De Wekker, S.F.J., and B.J. Snyder (eds.): Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting: Recent Progress and Current Challenges, 291-344. Berlin: Springer.


DiLiberto, T., B.A. Colle, N. Georgas, A. Blumberg, and A. Taylor, 2011: Verification of a multiple model storm surge ensemble for the New York Metropolitan Region., Wea. Forecasting. 26, 922-939.

Lombardo K., and B.A. Colle, 2011: Convective storm structures and ambient conditions associated with severe weather over the Northeast U.S. Wea. Forecasting. , 26, 940-956.

Colle, B. A., and M. E. Charles, 2011: Spatial distribution and evolution of extratropical cyclone errors over North America and adjacent oceans in the NCEP Global Forecast System model. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 129-149.

Yuter, S. E., J. Payne, D. Stark, B.A. Colle, and J. Crouch, 2011: Observational sensitivity study of the temporal and spatial patterns of orographic precipitation for winter storms near Portland, Oregon. J. Hydrometeor, 12, 329-351.

Lin, Y., L. Donner, and B.A. Colle, 2011: Parameterization of riming degree and its impact on ice fall speed using ARM data, Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1013–1035.

Lin, Y., and B. A. Colle, 2011: A new bulk microphysical scheme that includes varying degree of riming and particle habits., Mon. Wea. Rev. , 139, 1036-1047.

Murray, J., and B. Colle, 2011: A climatology of convective storms over the Northeast United States. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 139, 992-1012.

Bowman, M. J., B.A. Colle, and H. Bowman, 2011: “Storm surge modeling for the New York City Region, Chapter 5 in Coastal Adaptation and Flood Risk in Coastal Cities., pg. 76-95. Earthscan Publishing.


Lombardo, K., and B.A. Colle, 2010: A climatology of convective structures over the Northeast U.S. and the associated ambient conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev, 138, 4456–4474.

Colle, B. A., and D. Novak, 2010: New York Bight jet: Climatology and dynamical evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev.,138, 2385-2404

Novak, D., and B.A. Colle, 2010: Climatology and composite analysis of mesoscale precipitation band formation in the comma head of mid-latitude cyclones., Mon. Wea. Rev. 138, 2354-2374.

Willett, K., F. Pimenta, D. Veron, and B. Colle, 2010: Electric power from offshore wind via synoptic-scale interconnection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0909075107.

Colle, B. A., K. Rojowsky, and F. Buonaiuto, 2010: New York City storm surges: Climatology and analysis of the wind and cyclone evolution. J. Appl. Meteor. and Climatology, 49, 85-100.


Charles, M., and B.A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 1: Comparison of the GFS and NAM models., Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1173-1190.

Charles, M., and B.A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 2: Evaluation of the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system, Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1191-1214

Novak, D., B.A. Colle, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2009: The role of moist processes in the formation and evolution of mesoscale snowbands within the comma-head of Northeast U.S. cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2662-2686.

Lin, Y., and B.A. Colle, 2009: Observed and Simulated Cloud Microphysics over the Oregon Cascades during the 4-5 December IMPROVE-2 IOP, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 137, 1372-1392.

Olson, J. B., and B.A. Colle, 2009: Three-dimensional Idealized Simulations of Barrier Jets Along the Southeastern Coast of Alaska.Mon. Wea. Rev. , 137, 391-413.


Colle B. A., Lin Y., Medina S., Smull B., 2008: Orographic modification of convection and flow kinematics by the Oregon coastal range and Cascades during IMPROVE-2. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3894-3916.

Colle, B.A., Buonaiuto, F., Bowman, M.J., Wilson, R.E., Flood, R., Hunter, R., Mintz, A., Hill, D., 2008. New York City’s vulnerability to coastal flooding. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 89, 829–841.

Novak, D. and B.A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2008: High resolution observations and model simulations of the life cycle of an intense mesoscale snowband., Mon. Wea. Rev. , 136, 1433–1456.

Colle, B. A., 2008: Two-dimensional idealized simulations of the impact of multiple windward ridges on orographic precipitation, J. Atmos. Sci. 65, 509–523.

Bowman, M.J., D. Hill, F. Buonaiuto, B. Colle, R. Flood, R. Wilson, R. Hunter and J. Wang, 2008. Threats and Responses Associated with Rapid Climate Change in Metropolitan New York. In “Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change”, M. MacCracken, F. Moore and J.C. Topping (eds). Earthscan, London, pp. 327.


Olson, J., B. Colle, N. Bond, and N. Winstead, 2007: A comparison of two barrier jet events along the southeast Alaskan coast during the SARJET experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3642–3663.

Olson, J. B., and B.A. Colle, 2007: A Modified approach to initialize an idealized extra-tropical cyclone within a mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 135, 1614-1624.

Jones, M., B.A. Colle, and J. Tongue, 2007: Evaluation of a short-range ensemble forecast system over the Northeast U.S., Wea. Forecasting, 22, 36-55.

Colle, B. A., and S. E., Yuter, 2007: The Impact of Coastal Boundaries and Small Hills on the Precipitation Distribution Across Southern Connecticut and Long Island, NY. Mon. Wea. Rev, 135, 933-954.

SoMAS Convocation 2017

Congratulations to our graduates!  The annual SoMAS Convocation occurred on Friday, May 19, 2017 at the Student Activities Center auditorium. Students gathered with their friends and family and SoMAS faculty and staff to celebrate the completion of their journey at...

SoMAS Celebrates Earthstock 2017

Earthstock, the Stony Brook University annual celebration of Earth Day, has been an annual tradition for years.  This year, in honor of our 50th Anniversary, SoMAS had a very significant presence at the event. On Monday April 17th, New York State Assemblyman Steve...

SBU Mentors 21 Regeneron Finalists

Photo above: Regeneron Science Talent Search finalist Caitlin Gormley from Sayville Highschool standing with her GIS project Long Island as a region produced a total of 58 first-round prizewinners in the renamed Regeneron Science Talent Search (the competition was...

SoMAS Convocation 2016

Congratulations to our graduates!  The annual SoMAS Convocation occurred on Friday, May 20, 2016 at the SAC auditorium. Students gathered with their friends and family and SoMAS faculty and staff to celebrate the completion of their journey at Stony Brook University....

2016 SoMAS Photo Competition

The SoMAS photo competition is an annual event where students (graduate and undergraduate), faculty and staff share their pictures with the SoMAS community and the general public. The Photo Competition will be divided into three categories with a single winner in each...

SoMAS research addresses “Sharknado Studies”

The third "Sharknado" film premiers tonight on the SyFy channel, and early reviews suggest a similar level of insanity as has been present in the past two films.  While the film suspends belief in as many scenes as possible, there is some accuracy in the science....

URECA Researchers of the Month May 2015

From May 2015 URECA Researchers of the Month Here are some of the graduating seniors we will miss. ...We wish them all well with their future endeavors and pursuits! Michael Colbert - Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Major - Research Mentor: Dr. Brian Colle, School...

SBU camera captures snowflakes

Photo above: The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (foreground) and vertically pointing radar (dish in background) will help researchers at SBU gather better data on snowstorms for better forecast models. PHOTO CREDIT: BRIAN COLLE From SBU camera captures snowflakes on...

Workshop on Hazardous Weather Communication

Sponsored By:  AMS Long Island/NYC Chapter, NOAA/National Weather Service & Stony Brook University When: Tuesday November 18th at 7-9 pm* Please RSVP to the meeting. Where: CEWIT Center at Stony Brook University (see map below) What: Communication is critical step...

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